Would the EU Be Welcoming to Scotland If It Joined Independently?

An Independent Scotland and the EU: What's at Stake?

Under the current rules, an independent Scotland would face significant challenges in joining the European Union (EU). The primary hurdles include its fiscal deficit and the absence of a national currency. These factors, when combined, make the scenario of Scotland's integration into the EU both complex and uncertain.

The Fiscal Deficit: A Major Obstacle

The first major obstacle for an independent Scotland would be its fiscal deficit. It is one of, if not the worst, in Europe, and has struggled to reduce it over the years. According to news reports by the BBC, its 10-year plan before Brexit was years behind its target. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at the time, confirmed this in a TV interview with Andrew Neil. This failure speaks to the ongoing economic challenges Scotland would face, even outside the context of the UK.

A Currency Concern: The Inevitability of Collapse?

The second significant obstacle is the absence of a national currency. An accredited economist, cited on BBC, explained that if Scotland were to launch its own currency, it would collapse almost immediately due to its fiscal debt. This currency failure would lead to severe economic issues, including cuts in social welfare, pensions, education, and healthcare services. Moreover, to prevent this economic downturn, Scotland would likely need to increase taxation significantly. Such a scenario would present a unattractive picture for an independent Scotland seeking EU membership.

The EU vs. the Most Successful Union in History?

The question then arises: why would Scotland want to leave the most successful union, the United Kingdom, and join an organization that offers less sovereignty and decision-making power? The historical context of the Act of Union in 1707, through which Scotland and England joined forces, only strengthens the argument. Scotland once benefited from being part of a successful union, yet now faced with the prospect of joining an EU that questions its member’s power and autonomy. The EU's struggles in its original aim as a trade bloc and its inability to quickly agree on important issues compounded by the dominance of larger members like Germany and France, further complicates the scenario.

Germany’s Nord Stream Pipeline and Its EU Allegiance

A notable example of the EU's struggles is its handling of the Nord Stream Pipeline controversy. Germany, in its policy decisions, prioritized its own interests over those of other EU members and the USA, supporting a deal that risked its energy security for future generations. Germany's actions were a significant blow to Germany's and the EU's reputation within the global community, especially after ex- German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke fluent Russian, alerted them to the risks. This decision, characterized by a lack of transparency and accountability, was a stark reminder of the EU's centralized power and the erosion of individual nation's sovereignty.

France and Fishing Rights

France’s action with regards to fishing rights further underscores the loss of national sovereignty within the EU. President Macron openly stated his intention to veto any deal with the UK that didn't grant France the fishing rights in British waters that they desired. This decision could have dire consequences for Scotland's fishing industry, as it did for the British fishing industry when we joined the European Economic Community (EEC). The EEC's decisions led to the loss of jobs and boats, forcing many fishermen to sell their quotas. Fishermen's villages and communities suffered due to the EU's influence. It’s a harsh reality that could be repeated in the case of Scottish independence and EU membership.

The Loss of Sovereignty and Power

The EU's influence doesn't stop at economic policies. The organization's governance and decision-making processes have been criticized for their lack of democracy, with unelected leaders making decisions that directly impact member states. The proposed changes to move from a veto system to a qualified majority voting system suggests a further erosion of national sovereignty. The UK’s election results have shown that people want to have a say in their government’s actions, but the EU's centralized power and remote decision-making processes mean that this is often not possible.

Summary

The challenges an independent Scotland would face in joining the EU are significant. From fiscal deficits to currency collapse and the loss of sovereignty, the decision to join the EU would likely not present an attractive picture for an independent Scotland. The historical and current struggles within the EU highlight the risks of joining a union that prioritizes collective power over individual nation's interests.