Will the Dissatisfaction of AKP Members Truly Threaten Erdogan’s Presidency?

The recent rumor of potential defections by senior members of President Erdogan's AKP party has led to speculation about its impact on his presidency. Western strategic propaganda often turns internal political feelings into unfounded fears, creating a misleading narrative.

The Rumors and Their Baseless Nature

Many have speculated that unhappy senior members of the AKP might break away to form a new political party. However, this is often exaggerated and built on assumptions. Reports suggest that so-called dissatisfied members might be taking this route out of necessity rather than ambition. Their reluctance to publicly express dissatisfaction is due to the fear of being labeled as betrayers, which would result in a loss of support from Erdogan's worshiping base.

The Power Dynamics within the AKP

President Erdogan's absolute control over the AKP party is a significant factor preventing potential defections. Erdogan himself is highly popular, and he has shown a clear resistance to sharing power. With such dominance, it is unlikely that he would readily allow his former members to establish a new party. Even if such a party were formed, it is unlikely to gain much traction, given the high regard in which Erdogan is held by his supporters.

The Current Political Climate

Current polling data suggests a negative outlook for Erdogan’s chances in the upcoming election. Although he did well in a head-to-head race, he has lost nearly all major cities. The spin-off of his party could further diminish his support. For instance, if a new party gets a few votes from both the defectors and Erdogan’s allies, it significantly reduces his chances of winning. This could have serious implications for his presidency.

Economic Challenges

The economic situation remains precarious. While the opposition does not push for an early election, it seems to be holding onto its advantages. If the current economic downturn continues, it could be a catastrophic blow to Erdogan's presidency. However, the potential for such an outcome is not yet certain.

Conclusion

Despite the political and economic challenges, it is essential to consider the current power dynamics and the reluctance of Erdogan's supporters to abandon him. The potential for defections to form a new party, while seemingly concerning, might not materialize due to Erdogan's strong control over the party and the loyalty of his supporters.

As the situation unfolds, it is crucial to maintain a balanced perspective, free from unfounded rumors and propaganda. The true outcome remains to be seen, but the current environment has the potential to be both challenging and decisive for Erdogan's presidency.