Will Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Dip Below 40 on Election Day 2020?

The approval rating of any sitting president is often a subject of great debate and scrutiny, especially during an election year. In this article, we will delve into predictions about whether President Donald Trump’s approval rating will dip below 40 on November 3rd, 2020. We will also explore the broader context of polling and voter behavior.

Is the Approval Rating a Reliable Measure?

?While approval ratings hold significant weight, it’s important to critically evaluate their reliability. As stated in the original discussion, the polling data often faces criticism for its oversampling of minorities and Democrats, which can skew the results. Additionally, many conservatives are known for not expressing their true feelings in public opinion polls, leading to a potential underestimation of support for certain candidates.

Stability of Trump’s Approval Rating

During his tenure, President Trump's approval rating has shown remarkable stability. Despite occasional dips, particularly in the high 30s, the trend usually rebounds to around 40-42 percent. According to FiveThirtyEight, his highest approval rating was 45.8 on April 5th, but it has since dropped by nearly 5 points to 41.1.

Importance of the “F-U” Vote

The concept of the “F-U” vote is gaining traction. This term refers to individuals who withhold their true opinions until they reach the ballot box. Given this behavior, it’s crucial to account for the potential impact of how people may actually vote, as opposed to how they might respond in a survey.

Economic Performance and Its Impact

The economic performance of a president often plays a crucial role in determining their approval rating. Trump’s approval ratings have been consistently high when considering the economy, remaining over 50 for the majority of his term. The assertion that no incumbent has ever lost with an economy approval over 50 may indicate a strong connection between economic health and re-election success.

Contingent Factors and Predictions

The final outcome of Trump’s approval rating on election day is likely to depend on several contingent factors, particularly the state of the economy and any sudden changes in public sentiment.

If the economy continues to rebound, Trump is likely to retain his position. However, if there is a second wave of the coronavirus or a significant economic downturn, his approval rating could drop. The present trend suggests that Trump’s approval rating might reach the low 40s but staying above 40 is likely.

Concluding Thoughts

Based on the current polling data and trends, a range of 48-53 seems plausible for Trump's approval rating on election day. The definitive answer, however, will depend on the outcome of the election itself and the subsequent broader political climate.

Regardless of the final figure, it is clear that the economy will be a key factor in determining the outcome. Given Trump’s strong historical performance with economic approval over 50, it is reasonable to predict a stable approval rating above 40 unless there are significant unforeseen events.