Why the DUP Should Not Hold a Referendum on Tearing Up the Northern Ireland Protocol

The debate around the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) has been contentious for years, particularly for supporters of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). However, there are several compelling reasons why the DUP should not propose a referendum on tearing up the protocol.

The_PROTOCOL_CONTEXT

The Northern Ireland Protocol is an international agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK), specifically the countries of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It addresses the complexities of the border between Ireland and the UK to avoid a hard border. The protocol has been the subject of much controversy and political dispute, particularly following the UK's decision to leave the EU.

MASONS_REASONSAGAINST_REFERENDUM

Several significant factors underscore the reasons why a referendum is not a viable or advisable option for the DUP. These reasons include:

Public Support for the Protocol

One of the key reasons against a referendum lies in the opinion of the people in Northern Ireland. While some hardline unionists are opposed to the protocol, it has broad public support. Recent surveys indicate that a significant majority of Northern Ireland supports the protocol. Therefore, proposing a referendum runs the risk of losing public support and causing unnecessary political instability.

Legal and Constitutional Context

The DUP, as part of a larger political party landscape in Northern Ireland, does not have the constitutional grounds to hold such a referendum. The protocol is an international agreement and not a domestic matter for Northern Ireland alone. Moreover, the UK operates as a representative democracy, where referendums are infrequently used and typically initiated by the government.

International and Political Consequences

Proposing a referendum could have serious international and political repercussions. The protocol was designed to manage the complexities of the border in a way that avoids a hard border and preserves the Good Friday Agreement. A referendum would risk upsetting this balance and could lead to economic and social disruptions, particularly with the negative consequences of leaving the single market and customs union.

Historical Precedents

Historically, Northern Ireland's unionists have often resisted the policies of the British government when they believe these policies are against their interests. This was evident during the early 20th century when unionists used armed resistance to influence government policy, as seen with the 1914 Irish Volunteers and the Easter Rising.

The Role of Sinn Féin

In addition, the DUP's plans to hold a referendum may face significant opposition from their coalition partner, Sinn Féin. Sinn Féin is firmly committed to the protocol and would not support a referendum that could jeopardize the agreement. This opposition from a key partner makes it highly unlikely that the referendum would ever be approved or succeed.

In conclusion, the DUP would be wise to reconsider any plans for a referendum on tearing up the Northern Ireland Protocol. The risks of republic disapproval, the lack of constitutional grounds, and the potential for international backlash all point to a course of action that should prioritize political stability and international cooperation over unilateral decision-making.

Given these considerations, the DUP should focus on actions that strengthen their position within the ongoing negotiations and dialogue, rather than engaging in a potentially divisive and ineffective referendum campaign.