The Importance of Likeability in Voter Decision-Making

Traditional political wisdom often suggests that the platform and character of a candidate are the most crucial factors in voter decision-making. However, the role of likeability can’t be entirely dismissed, especially in contemporary voter behavior. This article explores how likeability influences voting preferences, especially in primary elections and the Bernie versus Hillary primary campaign.

The Role of Likeability in Voter Behavior

While it is true that the average voter typically has limited face-to-face interactions with candidates, the limited information available still plays a significant role in shaping their opinions. The adage “you vote for whom you know” rings true, as voters often rely on personal connections and public personas formed through various mediums, including TV ads and political mailings. However, these sources can be misleading, as opponents often present a biased portrayal, making it essential for candidates to build a positive public image.

The Importance of Political Platform and Character

Despite the importance of likeability, the political platform and character of a candidate are often considered the most critical factors. The platform (i.e., what the candidate says they will pursue) and character (can you trust them to do it) play a significant role in voter decision-making. These aspects inform voters about the candidate’s policies and values, and whether they can be reliably trusted to implement their campaign promises.

The 'Would You Have a Beer with the Candidate' Test

The 'would you have a beer with the candidate' test had a significant impact in the Bernie versus Hillary primary campaign. In the 2016 presidential election, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton both held campaign stops in the Bay Area, a progressive stronghold. Bernie’s fundraiser at a pub in Oakland was much more relatable compared to Hillary’s swanky fundraiser in San Francisco.

These events resonated more with younger, forward-looking Democrats who admired Bernie’s likability and his progressive stance. While Hillary had the support of wealthy donors, Bernie’s likability factor made him more appealing to a broader demographic, particularly in the Bay Area.

Case Study: The Bay Area Dynamics

CA’s primary held last in the sequence, which added an extra layer of uncertainty during the Bernie versus Hillary campaign. The Clinton campaign was particularly worried about a potential Democratic upset, forcing them to plan additional rallies in key CA locations. These rallies often focused on fundraising events in affluent areas such as Silicon Valley and Hollywood homes. Even Bill Clinton was sent by the DNC to rally support in the Central Valley through a pickup truck event in Modesto.

Despite these efforts, likeability played a significant role in the primary, particularly in the Bay Area. Bernie Sanders’ message and public persona resonated more deeply with younger voters, who were genuinely invested in his campaign. As a result, Bernie’s likeability factor was a key factor in his success in the Bay Area, even if it didn't translate to a broader upset in the state.

Conclusion

In the end, the role of likeability in voter decision-making is multifaceted. While the platform and character of a candidate are crucial, the personal connection that a candidate builds can be a significant factor in swaying voter preferences. The Bernie versus Hillary primary campaign provides a compelling example of how likeability, while it may not be the be-all and end-all, can play a vital role in mobilizing support among certain voter demographics.