The Future of Tamil Nadu's Politics: Can Vijay Regain Power After AIADMK or DMK?

Can Vijay potentially become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu if he joins either the AIADMK or DMK? The answer largely depends on the public response to his public rallies and meetings in the lead-up to the 2026 State Assembly elections. Let's explore the potential paths and the hurdles he might face.

The Road to Power: Public Response and Rallying Clout

As the leader of the Vijay Fan Club, Vijay has the potential to gather considerable crowds for his public gatherings. However, history might repeat itself, much like the outcome experienced by Ashokamitran (Kamal Hassan). In 2006, Kamal Hassan won praise for his rallies but failed to translate that into votes at the hustings, ultimately seeking an alliance with a party that could offer the best deal.

Given this precedent, it's crucial to consider the public's reception to Vijay's rallies. If the public response is positive and lends him momentum, then his chances of political success may improve. However, if the rallies fail to energize the voters, he may face similar challenges.

The Partisan Outlook

The DMK has shown no interest in incorporating Vijay into their ranks, as they are more focused on maintaining their existing strength. The AIADMK, on the other hand, might see merit in acquiring Vijay due to the party's desperate need to maintain or regain power.

Additionally, the competition from the BJP-RSS is another factor worth considering. Alliances might form to counter the DMK's dominance. However, even if Vijay joins a coalition, the possibility of success in the upcoming elections remains uncertain. The combination must be strategic and well-coordinated to ensure electoral success.

Historical Context: Vijay's Political Rise and Decline

Historically, Vijay had ambitions of becoming the Chief Minister. This aspiration was ignited after his coronation as Legislative Party Leader in 2011, when he garnered around 10% of the vote share. He challenged powerful leaders such as J Jayalalithaa and M Krishnamachari but his persistent confrontations with J Jayalalithaa, particularly during the assembly debates, caused tension within his party. This stance contributed to the disintegration and defection within his party's legislature.

Furthermore, Vijay's health has significantly impacted his political career. For years, he has faced health challenges, which have hindered his political ambitions. This is a crucial factor to consider, as his ability to lead is strongly tied to his physical well-being.

Current Landscape and Future Prospects

While the possibility of Vijay becoming the Chief Minister seems remote, he can still play a significant role in the political landscape of Tamil Nadu. He could emerge as the opposition party leader, as he did in 2011, by aligning himself with other parties and increasing his party's representation in the legislative assembly.

For Vijay to regain relevance and ultimately potentially become the Chief Minister, he needs to prioritize his health and focus on rebuilding the party. Political rejuvenation often requires a healthy leader who can inspire and lead a team to victory.