The Consequences of Assassinating Putin: A Speculative Analysis

What would happen if the United States assassinated Vladimir Putin, and if Russia had concrete proof pointing to the U.S. conspirators? This scenario, while initially gruesome, leads to a series of complex and multifaceted consequences.

The Psychological and Political Impact on Russia

Following Putin's demise, Russia would likely celebrate for a short period. However, the question remains: would the new leader be a monstrosity or a decent human being who cares about others? This scenario, although tempting, is more an idealized dream than a realistic outcome.

Assassination by Whom?

The crux of the matter lies in who might commit the assassination. Foreign governments, if caught, would face severe consequences, often seen as acts of war. However, from Ukraine's perspective, Putin is a legitimate target, albeit a daunting one. Assassinating Putin by a private individual could lead to retaliation, or in some cases, trigger a coup in Russia. If the assassin is influential and connected, the assassination might be seen positively.

The Risk of Nuclear War

The idea of assassinations leading to continuous attacks on world leaders and their families, along with influential associates, raises the specter of nuclear war. This path is not only terrifying but also pointless. Assassination violates the principles of Sun Tzu, who believed that the leader of the enemy could be surrendered to and negotiated with. Killing a leader merely emboldens his successor, who, armed with revenge and knowledge of their intended assassination, is less likely to engage in diplomacy.

Russia's Response

Russia would not acknowledge the U.S. claim of being behind Putin's death. Instead, they might claim it was an accident or a natural end. Using their vast propaganda network, the Russian government would narrate Putin's life in a way that aligns with their interests. Putin's legacy would endure, with subsequent leaders pinpointing flaws and using them to detach Putin from the public psyche, ensuring his enduring impact on Russian history.

Conclusion

While the assassination of Putin would undoubtedly mark a turning point in international relations, it would not lead to a significant and lasting change. Instead, it would set off a chain of events that could potentially lead to increased tensions and, in the worst-case scenario, nuclear conflict. Ultimately, the world would become more focused on the aftermath, much like the dramatic increase in vodka sales in Russia during times of celebration.