Introduction

Recent reports and rumors have clouded the true intentions and efforts of Russia concerning its neighbor, Moldova. It is often claimed that Russia had grand plans to invade and control not only Ukraine but also Moldova. However, the reality of these claims is far more complex and less dug-in than what has been portrayed in mainstream narratives.

Original Invasion Plans

The initial military operations in Ukraine revealed extensive planning for an amphibious landing, likely aimed at expanding the conflict further into Moldova and potentially Georgia. The plans, though ambitious, were in their infancy and faced numerous obstacles that prevented their successful implementation.

Ambitious Landing Operations

Organizers had intended for a massive amphibious landing near Mykolaiv, with the objective of swiftly capturing multiple strategic regions. The plan involved a portion of the invading forces moving westward to link up with Russian-controlled territories in Crimea, then progressing towards Odesa and ultimately Moldova. However, the operation was derailed by several critical factors.

Limited Success and Dismantling

Despite initial favorable conditions, the invasion spearheaded by Russia's Black Sea Fleet met significant resistance. The Ukrainians, including naval forces, achieved a decisive victory over the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The sinking of key ships, such as the Moskva, significantly hindered Russia's ability to carry out advanced operations.

Snake Island Incident

A notable setback occurred at Snake Island, where a Russian military command attempted to fortify the island with a large contingent of troops and advanced weaponry. The Ukrainians, anticipating this move, systematically targeted and destroyed the equipment, resulting in the loss of 450 Russian soldiers. This operation effectively halted the planned invasion.

Post-Invasion Actions and Russian Interventions

Despite the defeat on the battlefield, Russia has continued its attempts to exert influence and control over Moldova through de facto actions. Recent geopolitics in Moldova have seen Russian forces becoming progressively more embroiled in internal affairs, with reports of heavy Russian presence and operations aimed at fomenting unrest and political upheaval.

Revoking Sovereignty Guarantees

Last week, Russia withdrew guarantees of sovereignty to Moldova in violation of previous agreements. By removing these guarantees, Russia has created uncertainty and a potential power vacuum within Moldova, potentially justifying further Russian action.

Geopolitical Implications and Cooperation

Meanwhile, Moldova and Ukraine have entered into confidential discussions about the future of Russian troops in Transnistria. These talks include the possibility of opening a new front against the small but significant Russian force in Transnistria. President Zelenskyy is willing to take action if a formal request is made, which could lead to a swift and decisive end to Russian occupation.

Balancing Military and Diplomatic Efforts

The situation implies a range of diplomatic and military strategies, including the potential utilization of captured supply depots in Transnistria. Furthermore, the use of these depots would significantly bolster Ukrainian forces, providing strategic military advantages in the ongoing conflict.

Conclusion

The aspirations for an all-encompassing Russian invasion of Moldova proved to be ill-founded and unfeasible. Instead, Russia has resorted to indirect measures, including bolstering FSB and Spetsnaz agents in Moldova aiming to destabilize the region. As Moldova seeks support from both Ukraine and global partners, the situation remains fraught with tension, diplomatic maneuvering, and military engagement.