How American Intelligence Gained Knowledge of General Soleimani’s Schedule in Iraq

The tactical strike that resulted in the death of Qasem Soleimani, a prominent Iranian military commander, raised questions about the effectiveness of intelligence sharing and the methods used to gain such critical information. The incident is shrouded in secrecy, but analysts believe that human intelligence, or HUMINT, played a key role in uncovering Soleimani's whereabouts in Iraq.

Human Intelligence (HUMINT)

The US military's ability to track Soleimani likely hinged on human intelligence, commonly referred to as HUMINT. This is a form of intelligence derived from human sources such as spies, informants, and other human informers. Given the clandestine nature of the operation, it is plausible that the CIA, or possibly a foreign ally, had valuable assets embedded within the Quds Force and the militias aligned with it.

The Quds Force and Informants

The Quds Force is the foreign operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is known to operate sophisticated surveillance networks and has significant influence over various militia groups in Iraq. It might seem more challenging to gather intelligence from within the Quds Force due to the tight security and secretive nature of the organization. However, the presence of loosely affiliated militias can provide easier access. These militias are often influenced by the Quds Force but may provide more opportunities for placing or turning an asset into a valuable intelligence source.

Given the complex web of alliances and informal relationships, it is not unreasonable to speculate that the CIA or its foreign intelligence partners had informants inside these militias. These sources could provide actionable intelligence on Soleimani's movements and schedule, making it possible for American intelligence agencies to make an informed decision on engaging in military operations.

The Role of UAE Intelligence

There is also a strong possibility that the intelligence came from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Over the years, the UAE has been known to collaborate with the US on intelligence matters, especially in the context of countering Iranian influence in the region. In the build-up to the operation, the UAE may have had assets in place or had direct communication channels with the US intelligence community, providing valuable information about Soleimani's movements.

What Happened When He Called?

No one can fully confirm the details of the intelligence operation, but it is worth noting the bizarre and highly dangerous way in which Soleimani’s location was leaked. According to sources, Soleimani inadvertently revealed his position when he made a phone call that bounced off an Iraqi cell tower. This slip-up could have cost him his life and raises questions about the security measures in place in a high-risk environment.

The Decision Making Process

On the policy and decision-making side, the event is shrouded in mystery. An ex-US defense official, speaking under the condition of anonymity, revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had directly contacted President Donald Trump, informing him about Soleimani's location and requesting the US to take action. Trump reportedly agreed, and the US made the decision to preemptively strike.

This claim, if true, underscores the close relationship between the Israeli and US governments and the strategic cooperation in dealing with shared adversaries. It also highlights the speed and intimacy with which sensitive intelligence and decision-making processes can occur in high-stakes security situations.

Conclusion

The exact details surrounding the intelligence operation that led to General Soleimani's death remain highly classified, and no one can say for certain how the information was acquired. Whether through human sources, advanced technological means, or a combination of both, the operation is a testament to the intricate nature of modern espionage and the high-stakes nature of intelligence gathering. The incident serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between security and international relations, and the profound impact such intelligence operations can have on regional and global politics.