Congress's Strategy in Response to Trump’s Low Approval Rating

Celebrate that the president's approval rating of 40% is lower than Congress's 18% approval. This hasn’t happened yet. However, it is essential to acknowledge that congressional action is not primarily driven by the president's popularity.

Understanding Congress's Lack of Direct Response

More seriously, Congress doesn’t respond to the president's popularity beyond using it as a gauge to assess public support for what the president is doing. It uses this information to inform their positioning.

Outside of gauging public sentiment, Congress doesn’t typically engage in actions based on the president’s approval ratings. As the founding fathers drafted the Constitution, it does not specifically mention poll numbers. In a country governed by the rule of law, if a president engages in 'high crimes and misdemeanors,' legal action can be pursued. However, if it's merely low popularity, Congress remains largely unaffected.

As of this point in his presidency, Congress is unlikely to implement significant changes. Republican members of Congress may still defend President Trump, citing his ongoing learning phase and their continued majority in the House and Senate. This majority allows them to send legislation for Trump to sign, thereby maintaining their status quo.

The Implications of Low Approval Ratings on Congress

It's assumed that a president's party typically loses seats in the House during midterm elections.

The depth of these losses often correlates with the president’s approval rating. Two charts from FiveThirtyEight illustrate this pattern. If Trump's approval rating remains in the mid- or low-30s, Republicans in Congress might distance themselves from the president, aiming to protect their majorities.

House Majority and Democrats' Potential Gains

The Democrats need only 25 seats to take back the House majority. Historical precedents suggest this is entirely possible when the president’s approval rating is below 45%. Given the intense opposition from Democrats to the Trump Administration and his Republican allies, a similar high turnout for Republicans in 2010 can be expected for Democrats in 2018.

The Senate's Potential Challenges

The Senate's situation presents a different challenge. There were hopes that the 2016 election would make Republicans more competitive in currently-held Democratic seats, particularly in Republican-vulnerable territory. However, if President Trump remains unpopular, such hopes will vanish.

The Democrats may attempt to gain seats in Nevada and Arizona, the only states with a reasonable chance of providing an even split in the Senate. However, Republicans would still maintain a majority due to the Vice President’s tie-breaking power.

Lessons from 2010 and Potential Scenarios

It's important to remember what happened in 2010, when very few Tea Party-supported Republican primary challengers succeeded in both ousting Republican incumbents and winning the general election. Those who did win typically replaced retiring Republican incumbents in safe seats or prevailed over establishment-backed Republicans where no Republican incumbent existed.

Essentially, if Trump's approval ratings don’t improve by early next year, Republicans in Congress will need to consider strategies to protect themselves from a likely and aggressive voter backlash.

In conclusion, low approval ratings for Trump can significantly impact congressional strategies and potentially alter the political landscape during the upcoming Midterm elections.