Assassination Speculation: Would a Russian President's Involvement by the USA be Blamed?

Speculating on the potential involvement of the United States in the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin is far from far-fetched. The geopolitical landscape surrounding Russia's leadership and its relationship with the West raises intriguing questions about who would benefit the most from such an event and how it would be perceived by the Russian public.

Immediate Perception and Media Influence

Should Putin's assassination occur, Russian media's portrayal would likely be swift and unambiguous. The immediate assumption among the Russian population would be that the United States was responsible. As Russian media outlets, including the state-controlled ones, quickly jump to the conclusion that the CIA or NATO was behind it, the public's belief would solidify within minutes.

However, there are other plausible scenarios that must be considered. It is more probable that Putin would be eliminated by his subordinates, opposition sympathizers, or even an envious oligarch. Each of these factions could find it strategically advantageous to frame the assassination as a foreign plot:

Subordinates and Oligarchs: They might view it as an opportunity to demote Putin, strengthen their own power, or gain favor with other influential entities. Opposition Forces: They would benefit from any distraction that diverts attention from their lack of support or power. Envious Oligarchs: They might seek revenge against Putin's influence and entrenchment of power.

It is hard to imagine a situation where blaming the USA for the assassination would not be the preferred narrative, given the current political dynamics within Russia.

Economic and Political Repercussions

The assassination of Putin could have far-reaching economic and political implications. Putin's tenure has been marked by economic stagnation, and any chaos following his death could prompt economic turmoil. Russia's GDP remains lower than that of Texas, which underlines the ongoing economic struggles.

Moreover, Putin's leadership has alienated the EU and the notion of a 'Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok' - an ambitious transcontinental union that was discussed in the early 2000s - remains a distant dream. Under Putin's rule, Russia has seen increased tension with Western powers, which complicates his departure.

The absence of a clear ideological vision beyond personal enrichment presents a significant challenge. Should Putin be eliminated, the most likely successor would not be a pro-Western, soft-spoken liberal, but a far-right nationalist or a communist with imperial ambitions. Both possibilities would pose significant risks to American interests:

Far-right Nationalist: This would lead to an unbalancing of regional power dynamics, potentially leading to a more hostile stance towards NATO and other Western allies. Communist Resurgence: This could threaten global stability, as Russia would become a more aggressive competitor in international affairs.

National Security Concerns

The assassination of Putin also poses significant national security risks. Any sensitive workings behind the assassination could harm the security apparatus if not executed properly. Should the plan fail, Putin, with nothing to lose, may retaliate by:

Assassinating an American Political Figure: This would escalate tensions and lead to serious diplomatic fallout. Launching a NATO Target: A direct attack on NATO territory would be an act equivalent to war, leading to an international crisis. Nuclear Attack on the USA: Such a dire scenario could trigger a full-scale military conflict, potentially resulting in a world war.

These potential consequences underscore the low probability of an assassination attempt ever being carried out without incurring substantial risks to both the assassin and the global peace.

Despite these risks, the geopolitical landscape cannot be ignored. The assassination of Putin would send shockwaves through global politics and invite heavy scrutiny from the international community. Whether the blame falls on the USA or another entity, the immediate aftermath would see a profound shift in the balance of power in Eurasia.

As Putin's grip on power weakens, the international powers must carefully monitor the situation to ensure that any ensuing chaos does not destabilize the region or the world at large.